Favorites for the 2022 Tour de France's green jersey: Who can disrupt the Dutch or Belgian party?

The green jersey, the sprinter's jersey of the Tour de France and the prize for the winner of the points classification in the Tour de France. We looked at who has a chance of becoming the rookie of this Tour de France 2022.

In the Tour of 2022 there are again two different ways to earn points for the green jersey. Firstly, it is possible at the finish, where the first fifteen riders earn points. The number of points depends on the gravity of the stage. There are more points to be earned for flat stages than in the tougher mountain stages. This invariably causes sprinters to emerge as possible candidates for this classification.

In addition, the organization has created so-called intermediate sprints. These take place once per stage (not in the time trials) and the first ten earn points. When there are small leading groups, the riders for the green jersey thus have to be alert. The number of points per intermediate sprint does not depend on the stage difficulty.

Flat stages (stages 2, 3, 13, 15, 19 and 21):

Finish: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4 and 2 points

Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Hill stages (stages 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 14 and 16):

Finish: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 points

Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Mountain stages (stages 7, 9, 11, 12, 17 and 18):

Finish: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Time trials (stages 1 and 20):

Finish: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

10. Alexander Kristoff - Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert

Tenth place in our list is the Bear of Stavanger, Alexander Kristoff. Four-time stage winner in the Tour de France, but never winner of the green jersey. At Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert, in the absence of Biniam Girmay, Kristoff will be the sprinter on duty in the upcoming Tour de France.

Kristoff is having a good year with victories in the Clasica Almeria, Scheldeprijs and Tour of Norway, but was trumped in a sprint by Rasmus Tiller of Uno-X at the championships in his home country last week. Kristoff himself has also been mentioned with that team for the coming year, but first he has to make it in the sprints on behalf of Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert.

9. Michael Matthews - Team BikeExchange-Jayco

Michael Matthews managed to win the green jersey of the Tour de France in 2017. However, a lot has changed between then (Team Sunweb's barnyard year) and now: Matthews will have to sacrifice himself in the bunch sprints this year for his faster teammate Dylan Groenewegen, while he himself may want to take his chance in the hill stages.

Another question that is topical in 2022 is the battle for the points for promotion/relegation. Will Team BikeExchange-Jayco deploy sprinters Groenewegen and Matthews at intermediate sprints, when there are important points to pick up at the finish?

8. Ethan Hayter - INEOS Grenadiers

In eighth place we have a possible Tour debutant: Ethan Hayter of INEOS Grenadiers proved to be one of the most consistent riders in the Critérium du Dauphiné and quite frankly all spring. Hayter is excellent at riding against the clock, has a good sprint and a very good punch as well.

Because of this he is considered by many to be a miniature version of Van Aert, something he also proved in the Dauphiné. There the young Briton, who has never ridden a big tour, finished on the podium three times, to finally finish fifteenth after a tough final weekend. Great performances, which may thus earn him a coveted spot in the Tours selection.

7. Caleb Ewan - Lotto Soudal

Caleb Ewan is the second Australian rider on the list and the same applies to him as to Matthews: His team is in a relegation battle and that means stage wins (as many points as possible) are required as opposed to intermediate sprints. In addition, in terms of sprints, the course is not really made for the pure sprinters such as Ewan.

Nevertheless, someone with the speed of Ewan should of course be included in this sprinters' list for the green jersey. If he wins three stages in week one, he will automatically compete for green.

6. Peter Sagan - TotalEnergies

Seven (!): that's how many times Peter Sagan has managed to win the green jersey of the Tour de France. For years, the Slovakian superstar of TotalEnergies was the top favourite for the maillot verde in Paris, but the proportions are slightly different in 2022. Even for Sagan.

Sagan struggled throughout the spring, but suddenly showed flashes of his class again in June. Against all odds, he won a stage in the Tour of Switzerland, and then also took the national championship in Slovakia. In the Tour he will undoubtedly be able to intervene in the sprints again, but to win the green jersey? For that, his base is probably not strong enough, at the moment.

5. Fabio Jakobsen - Quick Step-Alpha Vinyl

Fabio Jakobsen is preparing for his first Tour de France on behalf of Quick Step-Alpha Vinyl and it is not surprising that he gets a spot high up on this list. The Dutchman won the internal competition against Mark Cavendish and will head to the Tour de France with Michael Mørkøv as his pilot, looking for sprint victories in the first week.

Jakobsen, who already won green at last year's Vuelta, has proved to be the fastest sprinter on many occasions this season. He won one or more stages in every stage race he rode (Valencia, Algarve, Paris-Nice, Hungary and the Baloise Belgium Tour) and managed to win Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. The next goal will be to win one or more stages in the Tour de France, and the green jersey will inherently come with that. The last two years (Mark Cavendish in 2021, Sam Bennett in 2020) Quick Step already succeeded.

4. Mathieu van der Poel - Alpecin-Deceuninck

In fourth place, we find a man who won't be going for the green jersey at all: Mathieu van der Poel The Alpecin-Deceuninck Dutchman will not be seen in the bunch sprints, but his potential in the wind, on the cobbles, on punch finishes and in the transition stages means he has the chance to pick up a lot of points.

Van der Poel will normally work for teammate Jasper Philipsen in the pan flat stages, but in the remainder of the Tour he will be given the opportunity to flail around. Attacking, flying in; that's the job of the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider, and if you do that succesfully, you might just find yourself unknowingly competing for green.

3. Jasper Philipsen - Alpecin-Deceuninck

Jasper Philipsen is the sprinter on duty at Alpecin-Deceuninck. Last year he finished fourth in the points classification of the Tour, after six podium finishes. After three third and an equal number of second places finishes in a Tour stage, this season it is time for some victories.

In doing so, Philipsen does not have to deal with Tim Merlier, who won a stage in the Tour last year. Merlier will leave the team of the Roodhooft brothers and has not been selected for the Tour de France. The stage is thus set for Jasper, who might just take advantage of this in the battle for the green jersey.

2. Mads Pedersen - Trek-Segafredo

In second place is a man who is not hiding his ambitions for this Tour: Mads Pedersen wants to score in his own country, that much is clear. The Dane has taken a good look at the time trial course in Copenhagen and wants to make a bid for yellow in the bonification seconds. To wear yellow in his own country, it would be historic for Pedersen.

The rider of Trek-Segafredo is also someone who in the rest of the first week should be able to get many points. Pedersen knows how to play with the wind, is very good on the cobbles and climbs well for a sprinter. On paper he could be the killjoy for the Dutch and Belgians in the battle for green.

1. Wout van Aert - Jumbo-Visma

The top favourite for green is Wout van Aert, no doubts. The Jumbo-Visma all-rounder is aiming for the green jersey for the first time and on paper, the Tour de France course looks made for the Belgian, who will have some good servants in Christophe Laporte, Tiesj Benoot and Nathan Van Hooydonck.

In the two 'mini-Tour de Frances', Paris-Nice and the Critérium du Dauphiné, everything went well: both stage races were won by Primoz Roglic, while Van Aert took the green jersey in both races. If we follow this logic, there is not much the competition can do against the versatile rider from Herentals.

Odds winner green jersey

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