Betting on fifth set proved to be worth a fortune at Wimbledon 2022

A few days after Wimbledon started, the editors of Sportbookies thought it would be interesting to start measuring the extent to which the most experienced c.q. seeded player managed to win the fifth set of a Grand Slam when it was played. That turned out to be an interesting statistic. A whopping 92 percent of fifth sets were won by players who belong to this group.

In total we recorded twelve fifth sets in which there was such a distinction between the players that one player was four years older or more than the other or that he was placed and the other was not. It was also possible that they were both seeded or unseeded, in which cases experience was the deciding factor. Doubtful cases were omitted from the study.

Hurcacz spoiled the party

A total of eleven fifth sets were won by the first group and one five-setter won by the second group. Only Hubert Hurcacz surprisingly went down as an outsider in the opening round against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He therefore lost narrowly to the world's number 37: 7-6 (4) 6-4 5-7 2-6 7-6 (8). Had this not happened, the statistic for this study would have been 100 percent.

Quotes ranged between 1.15 and 2.00 for the final victory of the seeded/experienced player. For players like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, the quote at the start of the fifth set was only between 1.15 and 1.20. In such cases it is more lucrative to start betting earlier, like at the end of the fourth set, if a five-setter looks destined.

US Open

Sportbookies is now going to measure the three-setters for these groups in the smaller tournament as well. Then, when the US Open begins, the plan is to continue to pick up this statistic for the fifth set. The US Open, which is played on hard-court, takes place between August 29 and September 11, 2022.

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